tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post3868120184337948241..comments2024-03-20T09:32:16.592-04:00Comments on Michael James on Money: How to Persuade People They’re Wrong about Monty HallMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-60118411494148075162015-02-27T11:36:54.255-05:002015-02-27T11:36:54.255-05:00@Gene: The factors you mention could come into pl...@Gene: The factors you mention could come into play if this game show were actually played. As I understand the history of Monty Hall, it was never actually played on a real game show. It's really just a probability question where a surprising number of mathematicians have a difficult time getting the right answer (or even believing it after they see it).Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-61318472358032364942015-02-27T11:32:55.351-05:002015-02-27T11:32:55.351-05:00I already have a car. Come on goat! No whammies!...I already have a car. Come on goat! No whammies!<br /><br />I think in the game, not so much in the analysis, there is also a commitment fallacy, and a loss-aversion fallacy. People probably tend to want to stick with their first guess, since they're lucky/on a roll. Also, maybe subconsciously we fear how we'll feel if we switch from the car to a goat.<br /><br />I think the main thing is what you've detailed here though, that we don't think there's any point in switching, that the odds have remained the same. I remember reading the scenario the first time in a book and I was surprised by the result.<br /><br />I'm writing this on Friday, so have a good weekend, Michael.genehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05608927986297939720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-67968133860448882202015-02-24T07:35:45.902-05:002015-02-24T07:35:45.902-05:00@Greg: Skeptics have their faulty reasoning for th...@Greg: Skeptics have their faulty reasoning for the 50-50 answer and then they don't listen because they know they're obviously right. It takes talk of betting and the possibility of losing money to cause them to re-evaluate. Your reasoning should be quite sensible to anyone who will actually listen.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-16931446542913233122015-02-23T23:25:57.799-05:002015-02-23T23:25:57.799-05:00That's a tricky one to reason about. I convin...That's a tricky one to reason about. I convince myself by breaking it down into two cases. 2/3 of the time I initially pick a goat, and switching gets me a car. 1/3 of the time I initially pick the car and switching gets me a goat. Have you ever tried that reasoning with skeptics? Gregnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-3455362938759630322015-02-23T06:45:50.656-05:002015-02-23T06:45:50.656-05:00I'll take door #1, no #2, no #3... no I'll...I'll take door #1, no #2, no #3... no I'll take door #4! (Ode to George Carlin)<br /><br />Interesting stuff, Alan W. (BCM)http://www.canajunfinances.comnoreply@blogger.com