tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post498106682249395381..comments2024-03-20T09:32:16.592-04:00Comments on Michael James on Money: It’s Different this TimeMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-50810064763145014612009-02-25T15:28:00.000-05:002009-02-25T15:28:00.000-05:00It often does seem different this time, and in a w...It often does seem different this time, and in a way it IS always different. Our current recession is a lot worse than the recessions almost any of us have seen first hand, and each cycle looks a little different.<BR/><BR/>I agree with your point though, each boom and bust has similarities to the previous ones. The Internet boom was similar to the airplane boom or the automobile boom. This recession has similarities to 1973-74 and 80-81.<BR/><BR/>I guess we are conditioned to believe that current trends will not change. I don't think too many people predicted the depth or length of our current recession.genehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05608927986297939720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-30170086265176944292009-02-25T13:54:00.000-05:002009-02-25T13:54:00.000-05:00CC: I agree that valuations were completely out of...CC: I agree that valuations were completely out of control and were the main reason for poor returns going forward. What I'm not so clear about is how the valuations got so ridiculous and why the bubble didn't burst sooner.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-73883484764090383592009-02-25T13:44:00.000-05:002009-02-25T13:44:00.000-05:00I think outrageous initial valuations were a huge ...I think outrageous initial valuations were a huge factor. I read somewhere that Japanese p/e ratios were 80 and dividend yields were ultra low. A lot of the pain can be explained simply by the change in valuations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-31217151184403765132009-02-25T09:10:00.000-05:002009-02-25T09:10:00.000-05:00Patrick: I've read some analyses of the Japanese ...Patrick: I've read some analyses of the Japanese economy that claim that it isn't sufficiently competitive because there tend be be only a few large participants in markets. I haven't looked at this enough to have an opinion myself.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-27050671495775820382009-02-25T08:51:00.000-05:002009-02-25T08:51:00.000-05:00Hi Michael. I believe in passive index investing,...Hi Michael. I believe in passive index investing, but I have a hard time explaining the Nikkei. Do you have any thoughts on that?Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16816252455472704262noreply@blogger.com