tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post5999295182593500149..comments2024-02-17T11:07:06.232-05:00Comments on Michael James on Money: Evaluating My 2012 Economic PredictionsMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-31281870825627228062013-03-01T09:57:57.964-05:002013-03-01T09:57:57.964-05:00@Jimmy: Reality has a habit of undermining our ove...@Jimmy: Reality has a habit of undermining our over-confidence. Maybe expert have a slight edge over the rest of us at predicting future real estate prices, but this is just a slight probabilistic edge. There is always a non-trivial probability that outcomes will be very different from expert predictions.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-56148635722841645892013-03-01T09:38:06.709-05:002013-03-01T09:38:06.709-05:00Prediction 2 is the biggest disappointment of the ...Prediction 2 is the biggest disappointment of the year, in my opinion. the indicators were there already, but then the real estate sector turned on its head and flipped us all by staying steady at a tough rate.Jimmy Waleshttp://equityteam.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-61673940463302584102013-01-11T07:28:42.139-05:002013-01-11T07:28:42.139-05:00@CanadianInvestor: It's very tempting to look...@CanadianInvestor: It's very tempting to look for an interpretation that makes my prediction look better. This would be fairly easy to do in this case because I wasn't very precise in writing up these predictions. However, in the case of the first prediction about interest rates, I specifically had in mind the Bank of Canada target rate. Since this rate couldn't really go any further down, I think I deserve to fail on this prediction.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-30326512962340836572013-01-11T04:30:59.309-05:002013-01-11T04:30:59.309-05:00Re prediction 1, give yourself credit! All but 10+...Re prediction 1, give yourself credit! All but 10+yr Canada bond yields rose slightly in 2012 per this BOC page - http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/. Of course, the predicted variable is plural "rates", so I am taking the position that the required proof to be correct is not 100% across the board rise in every interest rate out there, just a majority.<br />CanadianInvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05645767559302303541noreply@blogger.com