tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post7765827872258223593..comments2024-03-20T09:32:16.592-04:00Comments on Michael James on Money: Experiments in Assessing RiskMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-39030890665718825842008-09-22T15:18:00.000-04:002008-09-22T15:18:00.000-04:00Gene: If the amounts were larger, say $1000 if I ...Gene: If the amounts were larger, say $1000 if I lose and $2000 if I win, my instincts are the same as yours: avoid the one-time bet but go for the 100-fold repetition. I never trust my instincts on these things, though. Like you, I work out the numbers.<BR/><BR/>The book didn't give the details of how the experimenters conducted the study. They may well have let the subjects use their own coin.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-79256721938691528352008-09-22T15:12:00.000-04:002008-09-22T15:12:00.000-04:00Hmmm... my first instinct was to avoid the one-tim...Hmmm... my first instinct was to avoid the one-time bet and accept the 100-time one. Perhaps the odds are not enough in my favour to want to take the one-time bet.<BR/><BR/>I've read about these studies enough that I figure out the odds to overcome my hard-wired gut reactions though, so I would take either bet.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps to overcome Mark's valid criticism of the study, the experimenter would allow the bettor to personally flip a coin from their own stash.genehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05608927986297939720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-73445228855250488842008-09-22T10:40:00.000-04:002008-09-22T10:40:00.000-04:00Mark: This line of thinking applies in most situa...Mark: This line of thinking applies in most situations. But, the experimenters must have known that this would poison their results. If they were smart and interested in how people would react to a fair bet, they must have gone to great lengths to demonstrate that the bet would, in fact, be a fair one.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-63109567137543782762008-09-22T10:20:00.000-04:002008-09-22T10:20:00.000-04:00If a stranger comes up to you and offers this bet,...If a stranger comes up to you and offers this bet, you have to be a (trusting) fool to accept.<BR/><BR/>It's a guarantee that the coin is not genuine and that heads will appear much less than one time in three.<BR/><BR/>This reminds me of a quote from a TV show of many years ago. I believe it was 'Maverick' in the late 1950's:<BR/><BR/> "If a stranger comes to you and offers to bet you that he can pull out a deck of cards and that a one-eyed jack will spit in your eye, you can be certain that you will end up with a plug of tobacco juice in your eye if you take the bet."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com