tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post8807607581146254631..comments2024-03-20T09:32:16.592-04:00Comments on Michael James on Money: Tapping Into Investment Sentiment from MillionairesMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-32832996029869727652010-08-31T18:16:15.780-04:002010-08-31T18:16:15.780-04:00@Patrick: You're right that this type of &quo...@Patrick: You're right that this type of "survey" is tough to beat. They sometimes get it wrong, but I never know when.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-53354494108096275172010-08-31T15:50:36.396-04:002010-08-31T15:50:36.396-04:00I prefer to look at surveys like this one that tak...I prefer to look at surveys like <a href="http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:.GSPTSE" rel="nofollow">this one</a> that take consider everyone's opinion and computes weighted average based on how much they have invested.Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16816252455472704262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-60080963441459478562010-08-31T15:39:05.508-04:002010-08-31T15:39:05.508-04:00@Gene: I've always liked using the 50/50 bit ...@Gene: I've always liked using the 50/50 bit with lottery jackpots. A perverse truth about compounding is that if you take action on your guesses and are right 50% of the time, you'll lose to the index.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-84571046049248692402010-08-31T15:00:57.264-04:002010-08-31T15:00:57.264-04:00@MJ:
You make a good point. I find 100% of my pr...@MJ:<br /><br />You make a good point. I find 100% of my predictions are correct when I make them, but half of them turn out to be wrong later on.<br /><br />This reminds me of a scene from the show "Corner Gas", set in the town of Dog River, with about 500 residents:<br /><br />====<br />Lacey: Yeah, right. What are the chances of there being a riot in Dog River?<br />Karen: Fifty-fifty.<br />Lacey: What? Fifty-fifty? How do you figure?<br />Karen: Well, either there will be a riot, or there won't be. Gee, Lacey you really suck at math.<br />====<br /><br />So, in a way, I have a 50-50 chance of being right.genehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05608927986297939720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-4694247900294128922010-08-31T11:18:06.618-04:002010-08-31T11:18:06.618-04:00@Gene: I find myself in a position similar to you...@Gene: I find myself in a position similar to yours frequently. I learn some information that causes me to have some opinion about the short-term direction of stocks. Then I don't act on this opinion. I used to act on these opinions, but I've come to realize that I'm wrong as often as I'm right.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-58317834456067932432010-08-31T10:54:50.972-04:002010-08-31T10:54:50.972-04:00I think it is widely known that taking broader sur...I think it is widely known that taking broader surveys of investors (not just millionaires) is a good contrarian indicator.<br /><br />When individual investors are bearish, it's a good time to invest. This indicates there is a lot of money on the sidelines ready to rush back in when the market is set to rise.<br /><br />I was listening to a podcast from late July which stated that retail investors are bearish while institutional investors are bullish. Another podcast stated that bond funds are seeing massive inflows. Seems to me that once there is some positive news and stocks rise a little, we could be in for a strong rally.<br /><br />While I suspect this may happen, I'm not doing anything different. As usual, I'm fully invested in equities. I don't see anything cheap enough that I want to take on margin, which I rarely do anyway, and only in very conservative amounts.genehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05608927986297939720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-36263855772628414122010-08-31T10:40:25.090-04:002010-08-31T10:40:25.090-04:00@CC: I wouldn't be surprised if they actually...@CC: I wouldn't be surprised if they actually got the statistical part right. If you do the right things, it is possible to get reasonable information about a population of 250,000 with only 250 samples. I think they claim to be plus/minus 6%. The more difficult problems to deal with are whether the respondents are saying what they really think and whether they actually know anything useful.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-15235687494578530862010-08-31T10:28:28.773-04:002010-08-31T10:28:28.773-04:00"by doing 250 interviews each month"
Th..."by doing 250 interviews each month"<br /><br />There are apparently 250,000 millionaires in Canada. Interviewing 250, means they sampled 0.1% of the population. Must be a truly representative sample!<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MillionaireCanadian Capitalistnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-72961450676498029542010-08-31T07:55:20.804-04:002010-08-31T07:55:20.804-04:00@Echo: The more plausible conspiracy theory is a ...@Echo: The more plausible conspiracy theory is a secret club of billionaires who create the future and don't answer silly survey questions :-)Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-29457605750199896492010-08-31T00:17:09.089-04:002010-08-31T00:17:09.089-04:00Interesting post.
People are always interested in...Interesting post.<br /><br />People are always interested in the myth of a secret club of millionaires who know all of the insider tips and can predict the future. <br /><br />But I guess if they quoted the poor persons investment sentiment index, nobody would really care :)Echohttp://www.boomerandecho.comnoreply@blogger.com