tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post1277137619872004167..comments2024-03-20T09:32:16.592-04:00Comments on Michael James on Money: Leverage QuizMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-62539990842900416042014-08-31T07:25:29.415-04:002014-08-31T07:25:29.415-04:00There is a tendency among retail investors to buy ...There is a tendency among retail investors to buy high and sell low: leverage will make this worse. So I tend to agree with you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-33428223677644447472014-08-30T22:03:55.039-04:002014-08-30T22:03:55.039-04:00@Anonymous: I have no doubt that using leverage an...@Anonymous: I have no doubt that using leverage and seeking underpriced stocks can work for some investors. However, the majority of those who try will end up with worse results than simply owning the index.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-30778143815681760592014-08-30T21:44:46.830-04:002014-08-30T21:44:46.830-04:00My point is that leverage can work, but excessive ...My point is that leverage can work, but excessive leverage won't. And previous comments about valuations are relevant.<br /><br />Warren Buffett's leverage has been estimated at 1.6 times. His leverage isn't excessive, and he doesn't buy overpriced stocks.<br /><br />This is not a blanket endorsement of leverage. Leverage is a reasonable option for the experienced investor. Notice the use of the words option and experienced.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-20713691141806428212014-08-30T20:58:12.080-04:002014-08-30T20:58:12.080-04:00@Anonymous: That would have worked out well. If I...@Anonymous: That would have worked out well. If I modify that to weekly rebalancing (that's what the spreadsheet I created is set for), the result is +176% vs. +143% for no leverage. Of course, this ignores trading costs, but they wouldn't be too high on a large portfolio. Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-16181804206044374022014-08-30T14:09:22.375-04:002014-08-30T14:09:22.375-04:00Could I ask you to calculate the return on the fol...Could I ask you to calculate the return on the following portfolio?<br /><br />Hold XIU for the last 10 years, with 1.5:1 leverage. Rebalance monthly. Pay 4% on investment loan.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-54778193452327283662014-08-26T20:34:02.309-04:002014-08-26T20:34:02.309-04:00Thanks for the feedback. In 2008-2009 I did nothin...Thanks for the feedback. In 2008-2009 I did nothing as well. That said I had a hefty mortgage and when I made RRSP contributions I recognize that I would let money sit a few weeks as I tried to work up the courage to pull the trigger. I was over 80% equities and I know that it felt better putting new money in bonds although I did do both. That said I had not yet undergone a full conversion to passive index investing and had much less knowledge to help counter balance the media hype. The one thing I can say with some degree of confidence is that even in another major bear market any use of leverage will be modest and gradual for behavioural reasons. And prior to that step I would first gradually move by portfolio asset allocation from 85% to 100% equities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-53219200561570469052014-08-26T11:14:09.428-04:002014-08-26T11:14:09.428-04:00@Anonymous: You've described many of the thoug...@Anonymous: You've described many of the thoughts that ran through my head during the 2008-2009 crash. I had a paid-off home and could easily have used some leverage. In the end I chose to do nothing.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-55763361765449777422014-08-25T23:42:29.836-04:002014-08-25T23:42:29.836-04:00The only kind of leverage I might consider is my H...The only kind of leverage I might consider is my HELOC on a paid off home. I we experience another financial crisis (40% market correction or more) at some point and talk is again of the next great depression I might consider taking out money on my Heloc in an amount less than 25% of my overall portfolio to take advantage of the potential buying opportunity. Of course prices can go lower or remain flat for decades, but the amount I would be investing suing would be modest and really just a question of moving a up a few years worth of investment contributions. That said would not invest the whole 25% at once, but instead make a series of 5% lump sums over a period of several months if valuations continued to be depressed. That said I completely agree with you on the dangers of leverage and my use of it in a future financial crisis would be modest and on a buy and hold basis only after shifting first from 80% to 100% equities. I also realize that doing so will increase the risk of behavioral errors and I have the concept included in my Investment Policy Statement. Then again I might just stand there and do nothing as John Bogle says. The nice things with a HELOC is a can make small moves without any major consequences as it is an interest only loan. Note I have zero debt and I have already maxed out all registered accounts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-4173598771115561152014-08-25T23:33:52.775-04:002014-08-25T23:33:52.775-04:00@Anonymous: There are multiple ways to structure n...@Anonymous: There are multiple ways to structure nonrecourse leverage; to do so by completely eliminating all downside risk other than the premium on options is usually disastrous for the typical investor. They make bet after bet on options that mostly expire worthless. I'll stick with my conclusion that the vast majority of investors should avoid leveraging their investments, whether they do it with house loans, simple call options, or more complex strategies that tinker with the amount of downside risk.<br /><br />Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-60285025191242300202014-08-25T22:36:10.968-04:002014-08-25T22:36:10.968-04:00I think you misunderstand the concept of nonrecour...I think you misunderstand the concept of nonrecourse, since the cost is just the cost of the option or its imputed interest rate. There is no substantial loss of capital.<br /><br />In your example of 2000, we were investing in undervalued manufacturers and distributors which had a substantial margin of safety. Tech stocks at that time were egregiously overvalued. <br /><br />In today's market, there are very few undervalued companies or indices. We only have a single option (leveraged investment) that is worth the cost of the leverage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-10980510518072473952014-08-25T10:30:25.143-04:002014-08-25T10:30:25.143-04:00@Anonymous: Good analysis. Your idea of reacting ...@Anonymous: Good analysis. Your idea of reacting to portfolio changes by going in the opposite direction from maintaining constant leverage reminds me of Value Averaging which suffers from the same problem: it demands that you come up with cash or take back cash when the strategy demands it as opposed to when it fits into your life.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-81721089649992878612014-08-25T10:07:09.823-04:002014-08-25T10:07:09.823-04:00Keeping a constant leverage ratio using your propo...Keeping a constant leverage ratio using your proposed technique leads you to sell low (you have to sell when your portfolio tanks to reduce your leverage ratio back to desired level), and buy high (you have to buy when your portfolio soars to increase your leverage ratio back to desired level).<br /><br />The solution would be to do the reverse to keep a constant leverage ratio, to buy low and sell high: When your portfolio soars, sell (but don't pay back your loan) to increase your leverage ratio back to desired level. When your portfolio tanks, buy (without borrowing money) to decrease back your leverage ratio to desired level.<br /><br />The problem is that if one has the money to buy more when the portfolio tanks, why would have he borrowed in the first place? And if one sells (and doesn't pay back the loan) when the portfolio soars, what does he do with the money?<br /><br />Adopting a variable leverage ratio would solve these problems, but could expose the investor to a high risk of ruin (due to possibly very high leverage ratio).<br /><br />Conclusion, leverage doesn't seem such a good idea.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-78855822926270245722014-08-25T09:05:46.413-04:002014-08-25T09:05:46.413-04:00@Anonymous: I wonder how many investors decided t...@Anonymous: I wonder how many investors decided that certain high-tech companies offered a margin of safety back in 2000. These investors would not have been saved by nonrecourse leverage. It doesn't much matter if there is no margin call when your portfolio stays under water indefinitely.<br /><br />For all but the most savvy investors, leverage will harm portfolios in the end.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-73684977554728505522014-08-25T08:39:11.401-04:002014-08-25T08:39:11.401-04:00But there are two types of leverage - recourse whe...But there are two types of leverage - recourse where the lender has a claim on assets and nonrecourse where the lender has no claim on assets. Having some or all of the leverage as nonrecourse will affect the margin call - there never is one. Use of call or put options provide a form of nonrecourse leverage.<br /><br />Also, leverage could be applied to a single part of the portfolio rather than the whole portfolio.<br /><br />Finally, if the investor has some concept of valuation and has determined that value is much greater than the purchase price paid, then there is a margin of safety built into the purchase price. The risk of change in value on the downside is greatly diminished. Being built to survive a market shock is a necessity.<br /><br />There are better ways to find and use leverage than the traditional house and mortgage model that the majority of investors come equipped with to the opportunities that are more widely available.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-65441203151315310122014-08-25T07:38:05.793-04:002014-08-25T07:38:05.793-04:00“Give me a place to stand and with a lever I will ...“Give me a place to stand and with a lever I will move the whole world.” -Tzetzes<br /><br />Pretty sure he wouldn't think this was a good idea either.Big Lever Guyhttp://www.canajunfinances.comnoreply@blogger.com