tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post2468353996417370452..comments2024-02-17T11:07:06.232-05:00Comments on Michael James on Money: Return ExpectationsMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-88848610112971313922013-06-10T17:59:16.082-04:002013-06-10T17:59:16.082-04:00@Tom: It's not easy to simplify messsages whil...@Tom: It's not easy to simplify messsages while keeping them accurate. Steadyhand does this well.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-33559395901927729122013-06-10T17:52:55.037-04:002013-06-10T17:52:55.037-04:00It was our intention to keep the chart simple, but...It was our intention to keep the chart simple, but we didn't mean to make it inaccurate or fundamentally unsound. Mike, Scott and I think get your critique and are going to redo the slide. I think we all understand the point we're trying to make, but for the sake of simplicity, we've made the chart deceiving and confusing. Thx for the feedback. Tom Bradleyhttp://www.steadyhand.com/tom/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-80177317384007551532013-05-30T11:28:24.250-04:002013-05-30T11:28:24.250-04:00@Value Indexer: I agree that this chart serves a ...@Value Indexer: I agree that this chart serves a useful purpose for many average people. I suspect that there is a large gap of people between those who are well served by this figure and those who are able to see what is wrong with it.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-67591692619252015022013-05-30T11:09:05.949-04:002013-05-30T11:09:05.949-04:00Oddly enough, this chart may be good enough for th...Oddly enough, this chart may be good enough for the average person. If we look at overall returns, the lower bound should increase in time since a loss or small gain is more likely over a short period than a long period. The chart does show the lower bound going up. <br /><br />The upper bound probably increases a lot more, since you can get greater total return in 20 years than you can in 1 year. The chart shows the upper bound increasing but under-represents that.<br /><br />Most of the missing information seems to be on the upside, so removing that can't hurt in managing expectations. Anyone who can truly understand that in the right perspective probably figured it out just like you did.Value Indexerhttp://valueindexer.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.com