tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post7699861046696020081..comments2024-03-20T09:32:16.592-04:00Comments on Michael James on Money: Evaluating Market CommentaryMichael Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-36183356314647227762020-10-31T20:23:47.043-04:002020-10-31T20:23:47.043-04:00The comment above is a reply to Passive Income Ear...The comment above is a reply to Passive Income Earner's comment below. Further below is a subsequent reply from Passive Income Earner.<br /><br />-----<br /><br />I agree with you that world events can have an impact on the short value of a stock and that news agencies will focus on that as headline. We, as investors, need to focus on the value and filter the noise (like Cramer).<br /><br />I receive a couple of analyst documents performed at the banks that have daily and weekly report and I find those to be very grounded.<br /><br />-----<br /><br />@Michael: Thanks for the comment. I agree that they are not very long term focus and that we can't confirm that it generates long term return (let alone excess return). Someone I know is actually investing closely to one of the Canadian recommended stocks from one of the reports. I have just started looking at them over the past year as one source of information. I was actually curious if there was evidence for their 1 year target accuracy.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-46818257048570940312010-06-08T11:56:39.891-04:002010-06-08T11:56:39.891-04:00Great post Michael. Filtering the noise is key to ...Great post Michael. Filtering the noise is key to successful investing.Scott Rhttp://www.steadyhand.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-86156912927911431042010-05-25T10:55:28.155-04:002010-05-25T10:55:28.155-04:00@Passive Income Earner: Until I see evidence, I&#...@Passive Income Earner: Until I see evidence, I'm sceptical that there is any 1-year target accuracy.<br /><br />@Patrick: Thanks for the pointer. It would certainly be nice if Cramer were right significantly less than 50% of the time. We would have a shorting opportunity. I suspect that even if the 47% figure at the link you give is statitically significant, there probably isn't any way to profit from the slight 3% edge.<br /><br />This reminds me of the story in a kids' puzzle book I read as a child. A wealthy woman always brings a wino to the casino and gives him money to gamble. He bets on black or red at the roulette table and always loses his money very fast. Why does the wealthy woman keep giving him money to waste? Of course, the answer is that the wealthy woman became wealthy by betting the opposite way as the wino with much larger bets. Sadly, Cramer doesn't seem to be a suitable wino.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-68089720205029283622010-05-25T10:40:20.286-04:002010-05-25T10:40:20.286-04:00Before you assume Cramer's opinions are 50/50,...Before you assume Cramer's opinions are 50/50, take a look at <a href="http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_track_record_for_Jim_Cramer%27s_investments" rel="nofollow">his track record</a>. 50/50 may be generous.Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16816252455472704262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5465015914589377788.post-48222799996108491252010-05-25T04:12:32.283-04:002010-05-25T04:12:32.283-04:00@Passive Income Earner: I've read many analys...@Passive Income Earner: I've read many analyst reports on stocks and almost all of them sound like they were written by a smart person with a lot of knowledge about the company. However, none has ever come close to meeting the test I described in this post. There is no long-term evidence that this sort of analysis can generate excess returns. I'm still willing to look at analyst reports occasionally on the off chance that I'll actually encounter one that passes my test, but none have so far.Michael Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10362529610470788243noreply@blogger.com