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Happy New Year

At least dealing with a hangover isn’t too expensive :-)

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Financial Lessons from Poker

Common advice about controlling spending is to track all your purchases and add them up each week or month. I believe that this is effective, but have been fuzzy on why it seems to work so well. Why can’t people just spend less without the constant reminder of how well they are doing? I got some insight on this question from, of all places, poker. For poker players there is a certain thrill to dragging in a pot of chips. The thrill is there whether it is a $1 pot or a $10 pot. The $10 pot gives a bigger thrill, but not 10 times bigger. Similarly, losing a $10 pot feels worse than losing a $1 pot, but not 10 times worse. This leads to some players playing in such a way that they maximize happiness by taking in many small pots, but losing some big ones. As long as they don’t count their dwindling chips, they can actually be happy playing this way. Counting your chips is a lot like adding up your spending at the end of the month to see what happened. You may feel good about ...
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Are Financial Advisors the Solution or the Problem for Older Investors?

As investors age, two things become increasingly apparent: they need more help with their finances and investments, and they’re more vulnerable to financial exploitation.  Depending on who you listen to, financial advisors are either the solution to these problems, or they are part of the problem. On one hand, financial advisors and their firms like to sow self-doubt in the minds of do-it-yourself investors.  “Will you know when you’re no longer competent to manage your investments?  What will happen to your less financially savvy spouse if you pass away first?  You’d better hire a financial advisor while you’re still able to make good decisions.”  This paints a picture of competent and honest financial advisors stepping in to save their clients from themselves as they age. On the other hand, we have Ken Kivenko’s Financial Self-Defense Guide for Seniors .  Ken is a tireless advocate for Canadian Investors, and his guide is largely designed to help seniors ...
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My Investment Return for 2024

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The 2024 investment return for my overall portfolio measured in Canadian dollars was 18.0%, which is below my benchmark return of 19.0%.  The difference is primarily due to my choice a few years back to adopt an automated plan that shifts gradually away from stocks when stock prices are high as measured by the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of world stocks .  My benchmark doesn’t take CAPE into account. In years when stock prices are high but they give good returns anyway, this automated plan costs me money.  That’s what happened in 2024.  But I’m content with this outcome.  By shifting away from stocks when they’re expensive, my portfolio risk is lower at a time when stocks are riskiest.  I don’t expect my strategy to pay off during normal times.  I’m reducing my losses if we have a scenario where stock prices are high, and then they crash.  This is a kind of insurance, and it has a price during normal times. The method I use ...
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