Are Leveraged ETFs Leaky or is that a Myth?
I've recently been reading and hearing that it’s a myth that leveraged ETFs are leaky. The truth is that this depends on how one defines “leaky.” There was an interesting episode of the Rational Reminder podcast where Marco Sammon and Chris Murray explained the nature of leveraged ETFs. They went far deeper into mathematical details than I will here. I will look at a simple example and then bring what we learn back to leveraged ETFs to help you decide whether you think the leaks are real or imagined. With any investment, all dollars go somewhere. There is no leak in the sense that no dollars are ever destroyed. However, we can have a leak of utility, as I’ll show in the following example. Example Suppose you are offered an investment where your money either doubles or drops 80% on each of 20 flips of a fair coin. We assume that you’ll let your money ride for the full 20 flips. In one view, your expected return is (+100% - 80%)/2 = 10% per flip....