Thursday, January 10, 2013

Some Economic Predictions for 2013

Fresh from my near random performance in 2012, here are some predictions for 2013. I’d prefer to convince people that economic predictions are useless no matter who is making them, but that seems mostly futile.

Without any serious thought and no confidence whatsoever, here are some random predictions.

1. Interest rates will go up a little.
2. Housing prices will come down a little.
3. Canadian and U.S. stock markets will have an above average year.
4. Bonds will have a below average year.
5. The U.S. government deficit will be less than the 2012 deficit of $1.1 trillion.
6. Berkshire Hathaway will have a strong year.

You might notice that 5 of these 6 predictions are the same as the ones I made last year. To that I say quit complaining – it’s not like this blog is behind a paywall.

Remember that financial markets already reflect a consensus of predictions. Trying to out-predict this world consensus is largely futile. Do not rely on my financial predictions or those of anyone else.

1 comment:

  1. Not much to get excited about. I think optimism is a virtue here as the lone bright spot is the projected gains by private banks. That could prove a boon to some equities.