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$10,000 Interest in Pictures

Here's evidence that I have no artisitic skill.


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Financial Lessons from Poker

Common advice about controlling spending is to track all your purchases and add them up each week or month. I believe that this is effective, but have been fuzzy on why it seems to work so well. Why can’t people just spend less without the constant reminder of how well they are doing? I got some insight on this question from, of all places, poker. For poker players there is a certain thrill to dragging in a pot of chips. The thrill is there whether it is a $1 pot or a $10 pot. The $10 pot gives a bigger thrill, but not 10 times bigger. Similarly, losing a $10 pot feels worse than losing a $1 pot, but not 10 times worse. This leads to some players playing in such a way that they maximize happiness by taking in many small pots, but losing some big ones. As long as they don’t count their dwindling chips, they can actually be happy playing this way. Counting your chips is a lot like adding up your spending at the end of the month to see what happened. You may feel good about ...
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Even Dimensional Fund Advisors Struggles with Inflation Statistics

Inflation is a risk we have to face in financial planning, particularly in retirement.  We need to measure inflation risk correctly to be able to make reasonable financial plans.  The best guide we have to the future takes into account past inflation statistics.  But the field of statistics is full of subtleties, and even Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) can make mistakes. DFA creates good funds, and their advisors tend to do good work for their clients.  I’d prefer to find errors in the work of a less investor-friendly investment firm, but they provided a clear example to learn from.  They misapplied a statistical rule, and as a result, they misinterpreted the history of inflation over the past century. I discussed this issue with Larry Swedroe in posts on X.  I respect Larry and have followed his work as he tirelessly explains evidence based investing to the masses. A Simple Example To explain the problem, let’s first begin with a simpler example.  So...
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A Misunderstanding About Taking CPP Early to Invest

Recently, Braden Warwick at PWL Capital created an excellent CPP calculator that we can all use.  One of the numbers this calculator reports is the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) you’ll get between your CPP contributions and the CPP pension you’ll collect.  Some financial advisors (but not Braden) decide it makes sense for their clients to take CPP as early as possible (age 60), and invest the proceeds.  Their reasoning is that they believe they can earn a higher return.  Here I explain why this logic compares the wrong returns. The return you’ll get on your CPP contributions depends on the contributions you and your employer have made and the benefits you’ll get.  These amounts depend on many factors about your life as well as some assumptions about the future.  Typically, the return people get on CPP is between inflation+2% and inflation+4%.  (However, it can go higher if you took time off work with a disability or to raise your children.  It al...
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